Spatiotemporal changes of cropland cSpatiotemporal changes of cropland cover over past 100 years (1910˗2010) and its drivers in Nepalover over past 100 years (1910˗2010) and its drivers in Nepal

Abstract

Cropland cover and changes in its extent are directly related to human activities. To advance the land use and land cover change research, it is essential to reconstruct the spatiotemporal distribution of cropland cover and its changing scenarios in a country as well as regional level in Nepal. Meanwhile, with a rapid growth rate of population in Nepal, the status of cropland have undergone remarkable changes in over past 100 years. This study deals historical data adopted and collected from different sources between 1910 to 2010, along with soil, population density, climate and topography information. The different datasets of the investigated period were resampled and revised based on 30 m grid cells used for cropland suitability and allocation models with the help of advance geographical tools. Further, the study applied logistic regression model, focus group discussions and farmer's perception based household survey in order to screen the major driving factors of cropland change. This first and most historical spatiotemporal reconstruction study of cropland cover was revealed increasing trends from 15.12×103 km2 to 43.88×103 km2, between 1910–2010, and innovated 11-time slices high resolution (30 m × 30 m) spatial datasets of the country in a every ten years interval. The status of expansion shown that differ in different 3 stages (1910–1950, 1950–1980 and 1980–2010) and also different physiographic and regional level, which shown relatively less expansion (15.12×103 km2 to 21.13×103 km2) between 1910–1950, and rapid expansion (21.13×103 km2 to 40.15×103 km2) between 1950–1980. However, it has shown steady expansion way (40.15×103 km2 to 43.88×103 km2) in the recent decade between 1980–2010. Over the century status, the cropland area has expanded whereas the agriculture has become more intensified, especially in the southern (Tarai) and middle (Hill) regions of the country. A slightly decreasing trend was found in capital and areas surrounding of big cities in later decades.